Part of BMI’s Industry Survey & Forecasts Series
Published by: Business Monitor International
Publication date: March 2009
Business Monitor International
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CONTENTS
Executive Summary.............................................5
Vietnam Road Haulage SWOT........................................................................... 6
Vietnam Political SWOT...................................... .............................................. 7
Vietnam Economics SWOT ................................................................................ 7
Vietnam Business Environment SWOT............................................................... 8
Business Environment Ratings...........................9
Table: Asia Pacific Freight Business Environment Ratings............................... 9
Freight Industry Ranking.................................................................................. 10
Vietnam Logistics Performance Index (LPI).................................................... 10
Economics – Long-Term Risk............................................................................ 11
Politics – Long-Term Risk ................................................................................ 11
Freight Transport Growth ................................................................................ 11
Transport Infrastructure Growth...................................................................... 12
Regulatory Environment.................................................................................... 12
Competitive Environment................................................................................... 12
Transport Intensity Index................................................................................... 12
Political Risk Summary...................................................................................... 12
Economic Risk Summary................................................................................... 13
Business Environment Risk Summary ............................................................... 13
Legal Code/Corruption...................................................................................... 13
Red Tape.......................................................................................................... 14
Labour Force.................................................................................................. 14
Industry Trends And Developments .................16
Road .................................................................................................................. 17
Rail......................................................................................................................18
Air........................................................................................................................19
Sea...................................................................................................................... 19
Industry Forecast Scenario...................................22
Quarterly Oil Products Price Outlook................................................................. 22
Table: Oil Product Price, 2006-2013 (US$/bbl)................................................... 25
Macroeconomic Outlook...................................................................................... 25
Table: Vietnam – Economic Activity, 2006-2013................................................. 27
Transport Outlook ................................................................................................. 28
Table: Transport And Communications Data And Forecasts, 2005-2013 ............29
Table: Freight Carried, Domestic, 2005-2013....................................................... 30
Trade Environment..................................................31
Trade Agreements..................................................................................................... 31
Tariffs/Non-Tariff Barriers........................................................................................31
Table: Value Of Imports By Category, 2005-2013 (US$mn)................................... 32
Table: Value Of Exports By Category, 2005-2013 (US$mn)................................... 33
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2001-2006 (US$mn)........................................... 34
Table: Export Trade, 2002-2006 (% growth y-o-y).................................................35
Table: Import Trade, 2002-2005 (% growth y-o-y)................................................. 35
Table: Top Import Sources, 2001-2006 (US$mn) ................................................... 36
Market Overview.......................................................37
Multi-Modal................................................................................................................. 37
Competitive Landscape: Multi-Modal....................................................................37
Vinatrans .............................................................................................................. 38
Road...........................................................................................................................39
Infrastructure......................................................................................................... 39
Competitive Landscape: Road .............................................................................. 40
Rail ............................................................................................................................. 41
Infrastructure.......................................................................................................... 41
Competitive Landscape: Rail..................................................................................41
Air................................................................................................................................. 42
Infrastructure.......................................................................................................... 42
Competitive Landscape: Aviation ......................................................................... 42
Vietnam Airlines .................................................................................................... 44
Water............................................................................................................................ 46
Infrastructure.......................................................................................................... 46
Competitive Landscape: Maritime.......................................................................... 47
Vietnam National Shipping Lines (Vinalines).......................................................... 50
Maersk Sealand .......................................................................................................52
Competitive Landscape: Pipelines................................................................................ 54
Country Snapshot: Vietnam Demographic Data........................................................................55
Section 1: Population..............................................................................................55
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030........................................................... 55
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 .......................................................... 56
Section 2: Education And Healthcare......................................................................56
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ................................................................................. 56
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030...........................................................................56
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power.....................................................57
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004............................................................. 57
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)...................................................57
BMI Forecast Modelling.........................................58
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts........................................................... 58
Transport Industry................................................................................................. 58 Sources .....................................................................................................................................59
