VVietnam Freight Transport Report Q2 2009

 

Part of BMI’s Industry Survey & Forecasts Series

Published by: Business Monitor International

Publication date: March 2009

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CONTENTS

Executive Summary.............................................5

Vietnam Road Haulage SWOT........................................................................... 6

Vietnam Political SWOT...................................... .............................................. 7

Vietnam Economics SWOT ................................................................................ 7

Vietnam Business Environment SWOT............................................................... 8

Business Environment Ratings...........................9

Table: Asia Pacific Freight Business Environment Ratings............................... 9

Freight Industry Ranking.................................................................................. 10

Vietnam Logistics Performance Index (LPI).................................................... 10

Economics – Long-Term Risk............................................................................ 11

Politics – Long-Term Risk ................................................................................ 11

Freight Transport Growth ................................................................................ 11

Transport Infrastructure Growth...................................................................... 12

Regulatory Environment.................................................................................... 12

Competitive Environment................................................................................... 12

Transport Intensity Index................................................................................... 12

Political Risk Summary...................................................................................... 12

Economic Risk Summary................................................................................... 13

Business Environment Risk Summary ............................................................... 13

Legal Code/Corruption...................................................................................... 13

Red Tape.......................................................................................................... 14

Labour Force.................................................................................................. 14

Industry Trends And Developments .................16

Road .................................................................................................................. 17

Rail......................................................................................................................18

Air........................................................................................................................19

Sea...................................................................................................................... 19

Industry Forecast Scenario...................................22

Quarterly Oil Products Price Outlook................................................................. 22

Table: Oil Product Price, 2006-2013 (US$/bbl)................................................... 25

Macroeconomic Outlook...................................................................................... 25

Table: Vietnam – Economic Activity, 2006-2013................................................. 27

Transport Outlook ................................................................................................. 28

Table: Transport And Communications Data And Forecasts, 2005-2013 ............29

Table: Freight Carried, Domestic, 2005-2013....................................................... 30

Trade Environment..................................................31

Trade Agreements..................................................................................................... 31

Tariffs/Non-Tariff Barriers........................................................................................31

Table: Value Of Imports By Category, 2005-2013 (US$mn)................................... 32

Table: Value Of Exports By Category, 2005-2013 (US$mn)................................... 33

Table: Top Export Destinations, 2001-2006 (US$mn)........................................... 34

Table: Export Trade, 2002-2006 (% growth y-o-y).................................................35

Table: Import Trade, 2002-2005 (% growth y-o-y)................................................. 35

Table: Top Import Sources, 2001-2006 (US$mn) ................................................... 36

Market Overview.......................................................37

Multi-Modal................................................................................................................. 37

Competitive Landscape: Multi-Modal....................................................................37

Vinatrans .............................................................................................................. 38

Road...........................................................................................................................39

Infrastructure......................................................................................................... 39

Competitive Landscape: Road .............................................................................. 40

Rail ............................................................................................................................. 41

Infrastructure.......................................................................................................... 41

Competitive Landscape: Rail..................................................................................41

Air................................................................................................................................. 42

Infrastructure.......................................................................................................... 42

Competitive Landscape: Aviation .........................................................................  42

Vietnam Airlines .................................................................................................... 44

Water............................................................................................................................ 46

Infrastructure.......................................................................................................... 46

Competitive Landscape: Maritime.......................................................................... 47

Vietnam National Shipping Lines (Vinalines).......................................................... 50

Maersk Sealand .......................................................................................................52

Competitive Landscape: Pipelines................................................................................ 54

Country Snapshot: Vietnam Demographic Data........................................................................55

Section 1: Population..............................................................................................55

Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030........................................................... 55

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 .......................................................... 56

Section 2: Education And Healthcare......................................................................56

Table: Education, 2002-2005 ................................................................................. 56

Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030...........................................................................56

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power.....................................................57

Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004............................................................. 57

Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)...................................................57

BMI Forecast Modelling.........................................58

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts........................................................... 58

Transport Industry................................................................................................. 58 Sources .....................................................................................................................................59